PoliticsOpen

Who will win the next Senedd election?

The 2026 Senedd election introduces a larger chamber and a new voting system. This question asks which party will return the most Members of the Senedd.

38%

Plaid Cymru

Predictions: 2,417
30-day change: +6 pts

Probability history — demonstration data.

Outcome breakdown

Plaid Cymru38%
Labour29%
Reform UK21%
Conservatives8%
Other4%

Resolution rules

Predictions close on 7 May 2026.
The question resolves to the outcome confirmed by official public sources for Wales.
Accuracy is scored in free forecast points. Nothing here involves money, wagering or payouts.

2,417 predictionsCloses 7 May 2026Opened 2 Sept 2025

Recent predictions

valleys_viewReform UK155 pts1d ago
cardiff_owlConservatives125 pts2d ago
cardiff_owlPlaid Cymru140 pts10h ago
cardiff_owlOther90 pts2d ago
bae_analystReform UK120 pts24h ago
forecaster_cyConservatives105 pts2d ago

Sample activity shown for demonstration purposes.

PoliticsOpen

Who will be First Minister after the 2026 Senedd election?

43%

Plaid Cymru leader

Make your prediction — pick an outcome to move the probability.

1,955 predictionsCloses 15 Jun 2026

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Was the Senedd expanded to 96 Members for 2026?

96%

chance yes

Resolved: Yes.

1,520 predictionsCloses 30 Jun 2025

SportOpen

Will Wales qualify for UEFA Euro 2028?

64%