PoliticsOpen
Who will win the next Senedd election?
38%
Plaid Cymru
Make your prediction — pick an outcome to move the probability.
2,417 predictionsCloses 7 May 2026
PoliticsOpen
Who will be First Minister after the 2026 Senedd election?
Coalition arithmetic in a larger Senedd makes the leadership question distinct from the seat count question.
Probability
43%
Plaid Cymru leader
- Predictions
- 1,955
- 30-day change
- +3 pts
Probability history — demonstration data.
Outcome breakdown
- Plaid Cymru leader43%
- Labour leader36%
- Reform UK leader14%
- Other7%
Resolution rules
- Predictions close on 15 Jun 2026.
- The question resolves to the outcome confirmed by official public sources for Wales.
- Accuracy is scored in free forecast points. Nothing here involves money, wagering or payouts.
1,955 predictionsCloses 15 Jun 2026Opened 4 Mar 2026
Recent predictions
- eryri_statsLabour leader40 pts3d ago
- forecaster_cyOther180 pts6h ago
- forecaster_cyReform UK leader35 pts2d ago
- forecaster_cyReform UK leader140 pts1d ago
- newport_ninePlaid Cymru leader45 pts2d ago
- eryri_statsOther40 pts2d ago
Sample activity shown for demonstration purposes.
Related questions
PoliticsResolved
Was the Senedd expanded to 96 Members for 2026?
96%
chance yes
Resolved: Yes.
1,520 predictionsCloses 30 Jun 2025
SportOpen
Will Wales qualify for UEFA Euro 2028?
64%
chance yes
Make your prediction — pick an outcome to move the probability.
1,284 predictionsCloses 30 Nov 2027
Chart values and prediction counts are generated for demonstration purposes and do not represent real forecasts or outcomes.