All predictions
Current AffairsOpen

Will an M4 relief road scheme be revived before 2029?

Congestion around the Brynglas tunnels remains unresolved. This question asks whether a formal relief scheme returns to government plans.

Probability

19%
chance of Yes
Predictions
733
30-day change
-2 pts

Probability history — demonstration data.

Outcome breakdown

  • Yes19%
  • No81%

Resolution rules

  • Predictions close on 31 Jan 2029.
  • The question resolves to the outcome confirmed by official public sources for Wales.
  • Accuracy is scored in free forecast points. Nothing here involves money, wagering or payouts.
733 predictionsCloses 31 Jan 2029Opened 27 Jan 2026

Recent predictions

  • eryri_statsNo150 pts2d ago
  • valleys_viewNo185 pts18h ago
  • swansea_signalYes10 pts1d ago
  • eryri_statsYes150 pts2d ago
  • gwynedd_dataNo75 pts3d ago
  • bae_analystYes110 pts1d ago

Sample activity shown for demonstration purposes.

PoliticsOpen

Make your prediction — pick an outcome to move the probability.

2,417 predictionsCloses 7 May 2026

Chart values and prediction counts are generated for demonstration purposes and do not represent real forecasts or outcomes.